Brazil's financial market lowers 2025 inflation forecast to 4.55 pct

Alsharq Tribune-Otaify 

Brazil's financial market slightly lowered its inflation forecast for 2025, bringing expectations closer to the government's targets, the Central Bank of Brazil said Monday.

According to the bank's weekly Focus survey of analysts at the country's main financial institutions, the inflation forecast for 2025 slightly eased from 4.56 percent to 4.55 percent, while the forecast for 2026 remained at 4.20 percent.

The gradual decline in inflation is approaching the government's target ceiling of 4.5 percent, based on a 3 percent target rate with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points above or below that level.

Analysts' projections for the Selic benchmark interest rate remained at the current level of 15 percent for 2025 and 12.25 percent for 2026.

Regarding Brazil's economic growth, market analysts' forecasts remained at 2.16 percent for 2025 and 1.78 percent for 2026.

Brazil's currency exchange market, where the real currently trades at an average of 5.38 to the U.S. dollar, the forecast was revised to 5.41 reais to the dollar by the end of 2025 and 5.50 reais to the dollar by the end of 2026.

As for the trade balance, the Brazilian financial market expects a surplus of 61.99 billion U.S. dollars in 2025 and 66 billion U.S. dollars in 2026.

Projected foreign direct investment in Brazil remained unchanged at 70 billion U.S. dollars for both 2025 and 2026.